Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Mitch Raposo
Andre Lima
42%
58%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
26
Age
Δ 0y
25
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Raposo: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Lima: 51 sig / 0 TD
Mitch Raposo
Andre Lima
26
Sig strikes landed
38
60
Sig strikes attempted
66
41
Total strikes landed
68
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
142s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mitch Raposo
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
Blue corner
W1
Andre Lima
"Mascote"
12-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
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