Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Lerone Murphy
33%
67%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
38
Age
Δ 6y
33
25-14
Career record
Δ 26 pp
18-1-1
W2
Current streak
W5
29
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Barboza: 79 sig / 0 TD ·
Murphy: 220 sig / 4 TD
Edson Barboza
Lerone Murphy
51
Sig strikes landed
59
127
Sig strikes attempted
123
76
Total strikes landed
87
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.8
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
10s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
29 fights · 18-11
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
Blue corner
W5
Lerone Murphy
"The Miracle"
18-1-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—