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Prelims1 Lightweight

Jai Herbert vs Rolando Bedoya

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov ·Etihad Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jai Herbert
Rolando Bedoya
39% 61%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
36
Age
Δ 9y
28
14-7-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Herbert: 82 sig / 2 TD · Bedoya: 67 sig / 0 TD
Jai Herbert
Rolando Bedoya
71
Sig strikes landed
33
129
Sig strikes attempted
61
76
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
137s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jai Herbert

"Black Country Banger"
14-7-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 7 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
D UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
Blue corner
L2

Rolando Bedoya

"The Machine"
14-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—