Back to UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Xiao Long vs ChangHo Lee

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov ·Kingdom Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Xiao Long
ChangHo Lee
77% 23%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Long: 68 sig / 2 TD · Lee: 84 sig / 2 TD
Xiao Long
ChangHo Lee
40
Sig strikes landed
32
83
Sig strikes attempted
73
59
Total strikes landed
48
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
150s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Xiao Long

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

ChangHo Lee

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30