Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Caio Borralho
25%
75%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
17-11-1
Career record
Δ 32 pp
19-2
L1
Current streak
W5
17
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Craig: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Borralho: 36 sig / 0 TD
Paul Craig
Caio Borralho
15
Sig strikes landed
30
38
Sig strikes attempted
55
26
Total strikes landed
55
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
W5
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
19-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—