Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rongzhu
Shin Haraguchi
85%
15%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
Δ 1y
25
29-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
9-2
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Rongzhu: 64 sig / 0 TD ·
Haraguchi: 29 sig / 4 TD
Rongzhu
Shin Haraguchi
38
Sig strikes landed
20
61
Sig strikes attempted
55
51
Total strikes landed
29
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
-0.6
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
119s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rongzhu
29-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W
Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
—
Blue corner
W2
Shin Haraguchi
9-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W
Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
—