Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kaiwen
Yizha
27%
73%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
16-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
27-6
W2
Current streak
W4
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Kaiwen: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Yizha: 13 sig / 0 TD
Kaiwen
Yizha
24
Sig strikes landed
29
63
Sig strikes attempted
63
35
Total strikes landed
36
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
52s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kaiwen
"The Underdog"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—
Blue corner
W4
Yizha
27-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
Road to UFC 2.5 + 2.6
—
W
Road to UFC 2.1 + 2.2
—
W
Road to UFC 1.5
—
W
Road to UFC 1.1
—