Main
Featherweight
Bill Algeo vs Kyle Nelson
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot
·Boardwalk Hall
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bill Algeo
Kyle Nelson
61%
39%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
19-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
18-7-1
W2
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Algeo: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Nelson: 32 sig / 0 TD
Bill Algeo
Kyle Nelson
60
Sig strikes landed
49
119
Sig strikes attempted
119
81
Total strikes landed
67
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Bill Algeo
"Senor Perfecto"
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
Blue corner
W2
Kyle Nelson
"The Monster"
18-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—