Back to UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2
Prelims1 Featherweight

Erik Silva vs Muhammad Naimov

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 ·Arena CDMX
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Erik Silva
Muhammad Naimov
30% 70%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
9-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
14-4
L1
Current streak
W2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Silva: 0 sig / 0 TD · Naimov: 1 sig / 1 TD
Erik Silva
Muhammad Naimov
18
Sig strikes landed
31
36
Sig strikes attempted
52
29
Total strikes landed
62
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
84s
Control time
208s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Erik Silva

"The King"
9-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
W2

Muhammad Naimov

"Hillman"
14-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—