Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Thomas Petersen
Jamal Pogues
57%
43%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Petersen: 58 sig / 1 TD ·
Pogues: 65 sig / 0 TD
Thomas Petersen
Jamal Pogues
36
Sig strikes landed
36
72
Sig strikes attempted
83
56
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
123s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Thomas Petersen
"The Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
L1
Jamal Pogues
11-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
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