Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Marcos
Aoriqileng
67%
33%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
19-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
27-13
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 2
Marcos: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Aoriqileng: 45 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Marcos
Aoriqileng
58
Sig strikes landed
54
128
Sig strikes attempted
139
72
Total strikes landed
66
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
111s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Daniel Marcos
"Soncora"
19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W1
Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
27-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
L
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—