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Michael Johnson vs Darrius Flowers

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Michael Johnson
Darrius Flowers
50% 50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
38
Age
Δ 8y
30
25-21
Career record
Δ 2 pp
13-9-1
L1
Current streak
L1
28
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 61 sig / 4 TD · Flowers: 33 sig / 0 TD
Michael Johnson
Darrius Flowers
51
Sig strikes landed
52
108
Sig strikes attempted
88
68
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Michael Johnson

"The Menace"
25-21
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database 28 fights · 13-15
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
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W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
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L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
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Blue corner
L1

Darrius Flowers

"Beast Mode"
13-9-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
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