Main
Middleweight
Brad Tavares vs Gregory Rodrigues
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Gregory Rodrigues
36%
64%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
22-13
Career record
Δ 14 pp
20-6
W1
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Tavares: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Rodrigues: 71 sig / 2 TD
Brad Tavares
Gregory Rodrigues
41
Sig strikes landed
60
95
Sig strikes attempted
112
57
Total strikes landed
70
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
95s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
23 fights · 15-8
Last 5
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. …
—
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1
Gregory Rodrigues
"Robocop"
20-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—