Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jack Hermansson
Joe Pyfer
48%
52%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
36
Age
Δ 8y
27
24-11
Career record
Δ 16 pp
17-3
L1
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Hermansson: 121 sig / 1 TD ·
Pyfer: 92 sig / 0 TD
Jack Hermansson
Joe Pyfer
45
Sig strikes landed
41
93
Sig strikes attempted
93
59
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
88s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W3
Joe Pyfer
"Bodybagz"
17-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—