Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joshua Van
Felipe Bunes
87%
13%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
22
Age
Δ 12y
34
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Van: 83 sig / 1 TD ·
Bunes: 50 sig / 2 TD
Joshua Van
Felipe Bunes
25
Sig strikes landed
59
71
Sig strikes attempted
119
47
Total strikes landed
68
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.70
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
18-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
Blue corner
Felipe Bunes
"Felipinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34