Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Nikolas Motta
Tom Nolan
45%
55%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 7y
24
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Motta: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Nolan: 12 sig / 0 TD
Nikolas Motta
Tom Nolan
24
Sig strikes landed
36
45
Sig strikes attempted
67
39
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
105s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
15-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24