Prelims1
Lightweight
Steve Garcia vs Melquizael Costa
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Steve Garcia
Melquizael Costa
52%
48%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
20-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
27-8
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Garcia: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 6 sig / 2 TD
Steve Garcia
Melquizael Costa
43
Sig strikes landed
32
99
Sig strikes attempted
75
51
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
20-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
27-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—