Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Paulo Costa
70%
30%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
27-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-4
L1
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Whittaker: 95 sig / 0 TD ·
Costa: 67 sig / 0 TD
Robert Whittaker
Paulo Costa
71
Sig strikes landed
78
155
Sig strikes attempted
146
82
Total strikes landed
86
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
76s
Control time
22s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
27-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
20 fights · 15-5
Last 5
L
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W1
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
17-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—