🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
·Honda Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkanovski
Ilia Topuria
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
28-5
Career record
Δ 15 pp
18-0
L1
Current streak
W6
15
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Volkanovski: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Topuria: 35 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkanovski
Ilia Topuria
85
Sig strikes landed
95
154
Sig strikes attempted
186
118
Total strikes landed
133
1.0
Takedowns landed
2.8
4.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
138s
Control time
143s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
28-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 13-2
Last 5
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
Blue corner
W6
Ilia Topuria
"El Matador"
18-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—