Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Merab Dvalishvili
Henry Cejudo
80%
20%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
22-5
Career record
Δ 12 pp
16-7
W8
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dvalishvili: 74 sig / 5 TD ·
Cejudo: 29 sig / 1 TD
Merab Dvalishvili
Henry Cejudo
77
Sig strikes landed
59
160
Sig strikes attempted
138
111
Total strikes landed
74
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
7.8
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
198s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
Blue corner
L1
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
L
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—