Back to UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Brad Katona vs Garrett Armfield

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis ·Scotiabank Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Brad Katona
Garrett Armfield
60% 40%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
17-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Katona: 64 sig / 4 TD · Armfield: 105 sig / 0 TD
Brad Katona
Garrett Armfield
50
Sig strikes landed
43
91
Sig strikes attempted
100
73
Total strikes landed
61
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Brad Katona

"Superman"
17-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
W1

Garrett Armfield

11-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. T…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—