Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Andre Petroski
Michel Pereira
32%
68%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
14-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
33-14
W5
Current streak
W5
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Petroski: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Pereira: 6 sig / 0 TD
Andre Petroski
Michel Pereira
40
Sig strikes landed
49
105
Sig strikes attempted
89
54
Total strikes landed
69
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.1
6.4
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Andre Petroski
14-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
Blue corner
W5
Michel Pereira
"Demolidor"
33-14
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—