Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jonathan Martinez
Adrian Yanez
64%
36%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
20-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
17-7-1
W5
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Martinez: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Yanez: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jonathan Martinez
Adrian Yanez
70
Sig strikes landed
54
152
Sig strikes attempted
142
82
Total strikes landed
62
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
27s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Jonathan Martinez
"Dragon"
20-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
Blue corner
L1
Adrian Yanez
17-7-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—