Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
TJ Brown
70%
30%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
39
Age
Δ 6y
33
29-13
Career record
Δ 10 pp
17-12
L1
Current streak
L1
27
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Elkins: 11 sig / 5 TD ·
Brown: 15 sig / 2 TD
Darren Elkins
TJ Brown
46
Sig strikes landed
44
106
Sig strikes attempted
108
78
Total strikes landed
69
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
6.8
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
249s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
27 fights · 17-10
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
Blue corner
L1
TJ Brown
"Downtown"
17-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—