Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Grant Dawson
King Green
79%
21%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 8y
37
25-3-1
Career record
Δ 20 pp
36-17-1
W3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dawson: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Green: 7 sig / 0 TD
Grant Dawson
King Green
61
Sig strikes landed
41
134
Sig strikes attempted
86
84
Total strikes landed
49
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.9
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
302s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Grant Dawson
"KGD"
25-3-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W1
King Green
36-17-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
22 fights · 11-9
Last 5
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—