Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mauricio Ruffy
Raimond Magomedaliev
74%
26%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ruffy: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
Magomedaliev: 60 sig / 0 TD
Mauricio Ruffy
Raimond Magomedaliev
38
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
73
56
Total strikes landed
50
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mauricio Ruffy
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Raimond Magomedaliev
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33