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Main Heavyweight

Shamil Gaziev vs Greg Velasco

DWCS 7.7 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Shamil Gaziev
Greg Velasco
70% 30%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 8"
70"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gaziev: 4 sig / 0 TD · Velasco: 0 sig / 0 TD
Shamil Gaziev
Greg Velasco
36
Sig strikes landed
31
72
Sig strikes attempted
62
56
Total strikes landed
39
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Shamil Gaziev

0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner

Greg Velasco

"The Viking King"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30