Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Charles Johnson
Rafael Estevam
42%
58%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
33
Age
Δ 6y
27
L2
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Estevam: 18 sig / 3 TD
Charles Johnson
Rafael Estevam
51
Sig strikes landed
42
97
Sig strikes attempted
89
66
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
99s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Charles Johnson
"InnerG"
19-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
Blue corner
Rafael Estevam
"Macapa"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27