Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Trey Ogden
Nikolas Motta
55%
45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
18-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
15-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Ogden: 58 sig / 3 TD ·
Motta: 14 sig / 0 TD
Trey Ogden
Nikolas Motta
38
Sig strikes landed
40
90
Sig strikes attempted
89
57
Total strikes landed
50
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
103s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
18-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
L1
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
15-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—