Back to UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis
Prelims1 Lightweight

Kaue Fernandes vs Marc Diakiese

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis ·Ginasio do Ibirapuera
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Kaue Fernandes
Marc Diakiese
58% 42%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Fernandes: 23 sig / 1 TD · Diakiese: 13 sig / 3 TD
Kaue Fernandes
Marc Diakiese
41
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
83
54
Total strikes landed
53
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
234s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Kaue Fernandes

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
L2

Marc Diakiese

"Bonecrusher"
17-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
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