Back to DWCS 7.5
Main Women's Flyweight

Rainn Guerrero vs Dione Barbosa

DWCS 7.5 ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Rainn Guerrero
Dione Barbosa
52% 48%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
31
Age
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guerrero: 3 sig / 1 TD · Barbosa: 4 sig / 1 TD
Rainn Guerrero
Dione Barbosa
35
Sig strikes landed
38
83
Sig strikes attempted
85
61
Total strikes landed
69
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Rainn Guerrero

"Purple Rainn"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner

Dione Barbosa

"The Witch"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31