Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cameron Smotherman
Charalampos Grigoriou
71%
29%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
26
Age
Δ 6y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smotherman: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Grigoriou: 13 sig / 0 TD
Cameron Smotherman
Charalampos Grigoriou
38
Sig strikes landed
34
80
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
42
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cameron Smotherman
"The Baby-Faced Killa"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Charalampos Grigoriou
"Ferocious"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31