Prelims1
Lightweight
Mateusz Rebecki vs Roosevelt Roberts
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mateusz Rebecki
Roosevelt Roberts
80%
20%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 7"
73"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
21-5
Career record
Δ 18 pp
12-7
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rebecki: 10 sig / 2 TD ·
Roberts: 2 sig / 0 TD
Mateusz Rebecki
Roosevelt Roberts
47
Sig strikes landed
37
95
Sig strikes attempted
109
71
Total strikes landed
39
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
204s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mateusz Rebecki
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Roosevelt Roberts
"The Predator"
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—