Back to UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Taylor Lapilus vs Caolan Loughran

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac ·Accor Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Taylor Lapilus
Caolan Loughran
73% 27%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
W1
Current streak
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4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lapilus: 84 sig / 0 TD · Loughran: 48 sig / 2 TD
Taylor Lapilus
Caolan Loughran
51
Sig strikes landed
34
104
Sig strikes attempted
87
78
Total strikes landed
45
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
218s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Taylor Lapilus

"Double Impact"
22-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
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Blue corner

Caolan Loughran

"The Don"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27