Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ciryl Gane
Serghei Spivac
50%
50%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
33
Age
Δ 5y
29
13-3
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-6
L1
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gane: 109 sig / 0 TD ·
Spivac: 11 sig / 0 TD
Ciryl Gane
Serghei Spivac
50
Sig strikes landed
40
79
Sig strikes attempted
82
66
Total strikes landed
51
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
13-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
Blue corner
W3
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—