Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Hakeem Dawodu
65%
35%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
40
Age
Δ 8y
32
31-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-5-1
L1
Current streak
L1
22
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Swanson: 77 sig / 1 TD ·
Dawodu: 95 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Hakeem Dawodu
79
Sig strikes landed
76
143
Sig strikes attempted
151
88
Total strikes landed
93
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
22 fights · 13-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
Blue corner
L1
Hakeem Dawodu
"Mean"
13-5-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—