🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
·TD Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Sean O'Malley
65%
35%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
27-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
20-3
W8
Current streak
W4
18
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sterling: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Malley: 25 sig / 0 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Sean O'Malley
60
Sig strikes landed
64
122
Sig strikes attempted
129
83
Total strikes landed
75
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
8.6
Takedowns attempted
-0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
214s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 15-3
Last 5
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
Blue corner
W4
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—