Prelims2
Featherweight
Nathaniel Wood vs Muhammad Naimov
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nathaniel Wood
Muhammad Naimov
72%
28%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
24-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
14-4
W3
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wood: 50 sig / 2 TD ·
Naimov: 48 sig / 4 TD
Nathaniel Wood
Muhammad Naimov
53
Sig strikes landed
46
93
Sig strikes attempted
110
59
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
121s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Nathaniel Wood
"The Last Kingsman"
24-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Muhammad Naimov
"Hillman"
14-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—