Prelims1
Middleweight
Makhmud Muradov vs Bryan Barberena
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura
·The O2 Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Makhmud Muradov
Bryan Barberena
82%
18%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
26-9
Career record
Δ 16 pp
18-13
L2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Muradov: 54 sig / 13 TD ·
Barberena: 28 sig / 0 TD
Makhmud Muradov
Bryan Barberena
72
Sig strikes landed
64
161
Sig strikes attempted
144
84
Total strikes landed
82
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
104s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Makhmud Muradov
26-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Bryan Barberena
"Bam Bam"
18-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
17 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—