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Prelims1 Welterweight

Kevin Lee vs Rinat Fakhretdinov

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kevin Lee
Rinat Fakhretdinov
22% 78%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-9
Career record
Δ 26 pp
25-1-1
L2
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lee: 3 sig / 0 TD · Fakhretdinov: 11 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Lee
Rinat Fakhretdinov
27
Sig strikes landed
36
50
Sig strikes attempted
75
46
Total strikes landed
61
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
71s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
62%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Kevin Lee

"The Motown Phenom"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
L UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
W UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
L UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
Blue corner
W2

Rinat Fakhretdinov

"Gladiator"
25-1-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…