Back to UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria
Main Heavyweight

Austen Lane vs Justin Tafa

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Austen Lane
Justin Tafa
58% 42%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
—
Current streak
W2
0
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Lane: 3 sig / 0 TD · Tafa: 0 sig / 0 TD
Austen Lane
Justin Tafa
34
Sig strikes landed
29
62
Sig strikes attempted
48
47
Total strikes landed
37
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
120s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Austen Lane

0-0
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
W2

Justin Tafa

"Bad Man"
8-5 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
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