Back to UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Zac Pauga vs Modestas Bukauskas

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Zac Pauga
Modestas Bukauskas
29% 71%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
8-3
Career record
Δ 2 pp
21-7
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pauga: 67 sig / 1 TD · Bukauskas: 56 sig / 0 TD
Zac Pauga
Modestas Bukauskas
30
Sig strikes landed
40
62
Sig strikes attempted
75
49
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Zac Pauga

"The High Chief"
8-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
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L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
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Blue corner
W1

Modestas Bukauskas

"The Baltic Gladiator"
21-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
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L UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
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L UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
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W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
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