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Prelims1 Flyweight

Carlos Hernandez vs Denys Bondar

UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Carlos Hernandez
Denys Bondar
52% 48%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
10-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-6
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hernandez: 102 sig / 2 TD · Bondar: 76 sig / 2 TD
Carlos Hernandez
Denys Bondar
29
Sig strikes landed
27
70
Sig strikes attempted
61
48
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
75s
Control time
416s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Carlos Hernandez

10-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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Blue corner
L1

Denys Bondar

"Psycho"
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—