Back to UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Philipe Lins vs Maxim Grishin

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Philipe Lins
Maxim Grishin
36% 64%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
38
Age
Δ 1y
39
19-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
33-10-2
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lins: 45 sig / 1 TD · Grishin: 41 sig / 0 TD
Philipe Lins
Maxim Grishin
35
Sig strikes landed
44
76
Sig strikes attempted
88
47
Total strikes landed
65
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Philipe Lins

"Monstro"
19-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
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W UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
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L UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
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L UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
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Blue corner
W1

Maxim Grishin

"Maximus"
33-10-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
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