Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Angela Hill
83%
17%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
30
Age
Δ 8y
38
16-6
Career record
Δ 17 pp
20-16
L1
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dern: 126 sig / 3 TD ·
Hill: 66 sig / 0 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Angela Hill
80
Sig strikes landed
66
180
Sig strikes attempted
123
132
Total strikes landed
84
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.7
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
331s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mackenzie Dern
16-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W2
Angela Hill
"Overkill"
20-16
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
22 fights · 10-12
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—