Back to UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Karl Williams vs Chase Sherman

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida ·Spectrum Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Karl Williams
Chase Sherman
75% 25%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
33
Age
Δ 0y
34
11-2
Career record
Δ 29 pp
16-13
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
14

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Williams: 70 sig / 1 TD · Sherman: 54 sig / 0 TD
Karl Williams
Chase Sherman
44
Sig strikes landed
37
73
Sig strikes attempted
76
58
Total strikes landed
65
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
-0.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
259s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Karl Williams

11-2
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
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Blue corner
L1

Chase Sherman

"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 14 fights · 4-10
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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