Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Fernando Padilla
62%
38%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
34
Age
Δ 7y
26
L1
Current streak
—
12
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Erosa: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Padilla: 20 sig / 0 TD
Julian Erosa
Fernando Padilla
56
Sig strikes landed
49
108
Sig strikes attempted
104
71
Total strikes landed
60
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
116s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
31-15
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
Blue corner
Fernando Padilla
"El Valiente"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26