Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Caio Borralho
Michal Oleksiejczuk
70%
30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
19-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
23-9
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Borralho: 34 sig / 3 TD ·
Oleksiejczuk: 30 sig / 0 TD
Caio Borralho
Michal Oleksiejczuk
22
Sig strikes landed
19
49
Sig strikes attempted
44
40
Total strikes landed
36
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
213s
Control time
59s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
19-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
W2
Michal Oleksiejczuk
"Hussar"
23-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—