Back to Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4
Main Bantamweight

Xiao Long vs Shohei Nose

Road to UFC 2.3 + 2.4 ·UFC Performance Institute Shanghai
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Xiao Long
Shohei Nose
76% 24%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
25
Age
Δ 0y
26
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Long: 44 sig / 2 TD · Nose: 24 sig / 4 TD
Xiao Long
Shohei Nose
33
Sig strikes landed
23
65
Sig strikes attempted
57
50
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
131s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
33%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Xiao Long

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
L1

Shohei Nose

12-6-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L Road to UFC 1.6
—
W Road to UFC 1.4
—