Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kaiwen
Lu Kai
71%
29%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kaiwen: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Kai: 3 sig / 0 TD
Kaiwen
Lu Kai
31
Sig strikes landed
26
55
Sig strikes attempted
55
49
Total strikes landed
37
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
155s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
41%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kaiwen
"The Underdog"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
Blue corner
L1
Lu Kai
"The Last Gladiator"
8-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Road to UFC 1.6
—
W
Road to UFC 1.4
—